May 2010

Et Tu Greece? Makes For a Crazy Ride on the Fleet Fuel Express

Greece provided help last week to the fleet fuel markets helping drive down fuel costs by over $11 a barrel for crude oil and near 30 cents a gallon for diesel fuel. While the diesel fuel cost went down on the open market, at the retail station they actually went up another half cent a gallon, leading some to wonder why. We can tell what goes up fast, always comes down slow, especially in fleet fuel.

Transportation firms enjoyed seeing the crude oil prices die because they know in due time they will be seeing the benefits at the truckstop pump. Unfortunately, for almost everyone as crude oil went down so did everything else, including the stock market, taking a hit for almost 1,000 points at one period of time on May 6.

On Friday, May 7, I got to my office early expecting a very busy day with clients wanting to know about locking in fixed price contracts or anything else that they could do to take advantage of this market dip. I listened and watched (out my left eye) as they talked about how fast all of these trades were being made at one time and that there were problems with the trades. Investigation had already begun by Friday morning. A large chunk of the dip in the stock market that day had to do with computerized trading that have algorithmic trading plugged into the program to sell or buy if certain things happen. This can cause a real mess like we saw, especially if you owned Accenture and watched your stock fall to a penny.

The one interesting and very believable story from last Thursday was that some fat fingered trader mistakenly punched in the wrong number of shares, mis-typing billion instead of million, setting off a panic.

Many times during my fuel management career, I have written articles and have been a guest speaker about mistakes that are never caught in the fuel industry. It doesn't matter if you're buying bulk fuel, truckstop fuel, or mobile fuel, somewhere along the line someone's fingers had to enter or not enter something. In fuel, with so many transactions and such big numbers, it's easy for it to happen, so do you do fuel audits on all of your fuel purchases? Read on.

Friday begins about 7 a.m. with the phone ringing, with people asking for our fuel buying advice. I felt good that if you weren't covered by a hedge of some sort for the next couple of months, Friday was the day to do it. By 9 a.m., some of our clients had given us the approval to buy over 55 million gallons of fixed fuel pricing for them. This wasn't a couple of paper trades but wet fuel purchases across the entire country, one or two contracts at a time.

As midday arrives, I am having an issue with a fuel vendor to whom I gave a verbal approval to buy five contracts a month for 12 months or just over 2.5 million gallons of fuel at the best price he could buy it for. I get his price and in my mind his pricing is off by 10-13 cents a gallon. Since I had seen hundreds of trades that day, I knew how the fuel pricing was lining up throughout the country.

The fuel vendor insisted he was correct to the point, when he intimated that I could be having fuel buyer's remorse. He also forwarded the fuel purchase order from his supplier. I still knew there was an issue. I made calls; I sent e-mails. You name it, I did it.

The whole weekend I kept thinking about this and of course I kept our client informed of what was going on. On Monday morning, I received a call that says, 'Mr. Sokolis you're right and we were wrong. We had several keypunch errors that occurred during that period of time that we didn't even notice until you brought it to our attention.' Several! Several errors! Do you believe that this is a Fortune 20 company? The mistake they made on our client's contract was for only 11 cents but it was on 2.5 million gallons or $275,000 dollars. That is very real money. We brought it to their attention; did they bring it to all of their other clients' attention?

Make sure you fuel audit, and just think of the article I wrote a few weeks ago that listed all of things that can make diesel fuel costs go up. We never mentioned all of the things that can make diesel fuel costs go down. Let's be truthful: would you have really put Greece on your list?

Glen Sokolis is president of Sokolis Group, a nationwide fuel management and fuel consulting company, www.FuelManagementSokolisGroup.com. You can reach him at gsokolis@sokolisgroup.com or (267) 482-6160.
 

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Take the Wild Card Out of Fuel Management

Have you have been to Las Vegas, Atlantic City, horse racing track or bet on a football game? Do you ever feel like you’re going to win? Of course you do or you won’t go for the action. The entertainment dollar, fun, glitz but really we all know that those places weren’t built on winners. They were built on people losing money.
Now, you’re sitting at your desk and you’re putting together your fleet fuel budget for the next few months or all of next year. Do you have that same sense of fun and adrenaline that you have when you’re playing those games. Are you betting that diesel fuel prices won’t go higher or are you betting that diesel fuel prices won’t go lower?
Let’s not bet on diesel fuel prices doing anything, it is the one commodity that will kill you every time because when you think it can’t go up anymore it goes higher and just when you thought your fleet fuel price was going to be high to falls like a brick. Instead of having this happen, do what most of the larger companies do in the United States and do what almost every company does in Europe and that is manage the fleet fueling risk that you have with diesel fuel prices. 
You can call it hedging, futures, fixed pricing or buying a call opinion or a putt on fleet fuel but I like to call it buying fuel insurance. Here is how it works and I feel is the easiest way to explain to people who are both gamblers and non gamblers. Let’s think about diesel fuel prices the same way you do about truck insurance but let’s take the part out that is required by law.
Your company buys truck insurance to protect its asset; the truck. The truck is worth a lot of money and if the driver causes an accident or your truck gets hit by an uninsured or underinsured motorist your company wants cover to cover the costs of getting the truck fixed. You pay a few each month or year to the insurance copy for your coverage and your coverage is more expensive if you have a lower deductable.
With your diesel fuel prices, you make your budget and go out to fleet fuel market to determine what fuel is selling for over the period of time that you are budgeting for. Let’s say it’s $3.00 a gallon for next month but for 11 months from now it’s $3.15 a gallon. Your average price works out to be $3.07 a gallon. Either included in that rate or the fleet fuel supplier will add a couple of cents a gallon for themselves, so overall you’re paying $3.10 for all of next year. If the price of fleet fuel is sold for more than $3.10 during the year, your company looks like a winner. If the costs of fleet fuel are sold for less than $3.10 during the year and let’s say its $2.70 you look like a loser by 40 cents per gallon but are you?
You buy tens of thousands of dollars each year for truck insurance. It’s a big number on your profit and loss statement at the end of the year if your trucks were only in a couple of minor accidents or no accidents at all. Do people look at you and say that guy is a loser we never should have had truck insurance? No, of course not because by having the insurance you mitigate risk against the company. If you didn’t have insurance and a big accident happened then what would happen?
With buying fleet fuel at $3.10 and it only costs $2.70 a gallon a year doesn’t make you a loser. How can you lose, you budgeted $3.10. You paid $3.10. You took the risk out of your fleet fuel program by having this insurance in place. Let’s say the opposite happened? For a truck it would be an accident; for fuel it would be high raising diesel fuel prices! Have you ever seen fleet fuel prices high? How about this, from February 2007 to September 2007 diesel fuel prices increased 55 cents a gallon and from October 2007 to July 2008 diesel fuel prices increased $1.71 a gallon. From August 2008 to March 2009 prices fell by $1.40 per gallon. Then from March 2009 until March 2010 diesel fuel prices went up 95 cents. With that said the accidents for your fleet fuel prices are out there. They happen all of the time. We don’t recommend trying to beat Vegas. Nor do we expect or think you should jump into this lake with both feet at the same time. 
We do believe since prices have moved down by 30 cents a gallon for diesel fuel prices and crude oil has lost over 22%, now might be a good time to start talking about the next steps. All economic indicators in this country are strong and on the uptick. Yes, Europe is having issues and that along with excess supply has caused the oil market along with the stock market to fall but don’t be fueled (fooled).

These diesel fuel prices are going to shoot up like the BP rig in the Gulf. Once it starts going it might be hard to stop.

Warrington Greene, 1432 Easton Road Building 2F, Warrington, PA 18976
Phone: 267-482-6155

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